No stopping
In the midday hours, among the leading European stock indices, the DAX and CAC are both down by 2.4 percent, and the FTSE is down by 2 percent.
They also hit the oil
As a result of the increasing problems in the banking system, fears of a recession, which would bring about a drop in energy demand, are growing, as a result of which the price per barrel of Brent crude oil, which is considered a global benchmark, is already down 2.3 percent today.
Deutsche Bank and UBS are in serious losses
Deutsche Bank shares are already down 14 percent after the cost of insurance against the bank’s insolvency jumped sharply on Thursday night.
And UBS’s shares fell by 7 percent after Credit Suisse and the American authorities launched an investigation against the bank for evading sanctions against Russian oligarchs.
Europe is getting lower and lower
Among the leading European stock exchanges, DAX 2 and CAC are already down 2.1 percent.
The Hungarian stock market was also hit, the BUX is already down 2 percent, mainly as a result of the almost 5 percent fall of the OTP.
They keep hitting the stock markets
The DAX is already down 2 percent, the CAC down 1.9 percent, and the FTSE down 1.8 percent.
Bank stocks are being hit
As for the shares of major European banks: in addition to the shares of Deutsche bank, the shares of the Dutch ING and the Spanish Santander fell the most.
At the regional level, Raiffeisen’s shares fell the most, by more than 5 percent.
They also hit the OTP
OTP’s shares are already down 3 percent today, but they are still above the psychologically important HUF 10,000 price level.
Traffic is minimal, but above average. During the day so far, 1.53 billion worth of the bank’s shares have changed hands.
Bank shares are in the crosshairs
Last night, the US Department of Justice initiated an investigation against Switzerland’s Credit Suisse and UBS, whether their executives helped rich Russian businessmen evade anti-Russian sanctions already in effect. And today, partly for this reason and partly for the reason that the price of Deutsche Bank’s insurance against bankruptcy risk continues to rise sharply: on Wednesday the price of the 5-year CDS closed at 142 bp, yesterday it jumped to 173 bp, on Friday and it is already around 210 bp according to intraday data from Markit, although it was still around 80 bp in the first days of March.
Deutsche Bank’s share price is down 8% on Friday morning, which drags down the results of other sector peers, and these concerns are now overshadowing the fact that otherwise all the French, German and Eurozone purchasing manager indices were better than expected in February, according to today’s data releases.
The leading stock market is in the negative
The DAX is down 1.6, and the CAC and FTSE are both down 1.5 percent.
Europe is falling
After the opening, the German DAX is down 0.9 percent, and the French CAC index is down 1 percent.
BUX fell by 0.5 percent.
The Hungarian stock market is in a small plus
After the opening, BUX is at a minimal gain of 0.2 percent.
You can start the day with direction finding
What are the current events on the stock exchanges?
- The leading American stock indexes ended yesterday with an increase, the Dow Jones rose by 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 closed with a gain of 0.3 percent, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.3 percent.
- The Asian stock markets fell this morning, the Nikkei fell 0.9 percent, the Hang Seng was down 0.78 percent, while the CSI 300 was down 0.97 percent.
- The day can start with a search for direction on the European stock exchanges, based on the current state of the future stock indices, the DAX may rise by 0.56 percent, the CAC may fall by 0.47 percent, while the FTSE may fall by 0.57 percent.
- The American stock futures indexes are forecasting a rise at the market opening, the Dow Jones may open 0.21 percent higher, the S&P 500 may rise by 0.14 percent, while the Nasdaq may rise by 0.06 percent.
What can be expected on the macro front?
There are also data for the last working day of the week, for example, the KSH publishes the latest February unemployment statistics this morning. In the meantime, the preliminary purchasing manager indices arrive, as usual, the important economic indicator is published in the morning in Europe and in the second half of the day overseas.
March 20-26, 2023 macro calendar | ||||||
Hungarian macroeconomics | ||||||
March | 21 | Tuesday | 11:30 a.m | AKK | 3-month dkj auction | |
March | 23 | Thursday | 11:00 a.m | PM | Detailed acht account | Feb. |
March | 23 | Thursday | 11:30 a.m | AKK | Bond auction | |
March | 24 | Friday | 8:30 a.m | KSH | Employment, unemployment | Feb. |
International macroeconomics | ||||||
March | 20 | Monday | 2:15 a.m | China | Interest rate decision | |
March | 20 | Monday | 8:00 a.m | German. | Producer prices | Feb. |
March | 20 | Monday | 11:00 a.m | EU | Foreign trade | Jan. |
March | 21 | Tuesday | 11:00 a.m | German. | ZEW index | Mar. |
March | 22 | Wednesday | 8:00 a.m | UK | Inflation | Feb. |
March | 22 | Wednesday | 19:00 | USA | Fed rate decision | |
March | 22 | Wednesday | 7:30 p.m | USA | Jerome Powell’s press conference | |
March | 23 | Thursday | EU | EU summit | ||
March | 23 | Thursday | 13:00 | UK | Bank of England interest rate decision | |
March | 24 | Friday | EU | EU summit | ||
March | 24 | Friday | 8:00 a.m | UK | Retail trade | Feb. |
March | 24 | Friday | 9:15 a.m | French. | Advance Purchasing Manager Index | Mar. |
March | 24 | Friday | 9:30 a.m | German. | Advance Purchasing Manager Index | Mar. |
March | 24 | Friday | 10:00 a.m | EU | Advance Purchasing Manager Index | Mar. |
March | 24 | Friday | 1:30 p.m | USA | Ordering consumer durables | Feb. |
March | 24 | Friday | 2:45 p.m | USA | Advance Purchasing Manager Index | Mar. |
Source: Portfolio collection |
What has happened on the stock markets so far?
- Among the leading American, Asian, European and regional stock indexes this year, the Nasdaq index is at the top with a 16.4 percent shift, the leading one is the Dow Jones index with a 3.1 percent fall.
- Magyar Telekom’s share performed the best among domestic blue chips this year with a 14.5 percent increase, while Richter’s paper is at the bottom of the list with an 11.1 percent fall.
- Among the most important raw materials, the price of gold has risen by 9.5 percent since the beginning of the year.
More important instruments | |||||||
Exchange rate | One day | 1 week | 1 month | This year | 1 year | 5 years | |
US stock indices | |||||||
Dow Jones | 32 105.25 | 0.2% | -0.4% | -3.2% | -3.1% | -6.6% | 36.4% |
S&P 500 | 3,948.72 | 0.3% | -0.3% | -1.6% | 2.8% | -11.4% | 52.6% |
Nasdaq | 12,729.23 | 1.3% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 16.4% | -11.9% | 95.6% |
Asian stock indices | |||||||
Nikkei | 27,419.61 | -0.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 5.1% | -2.2% | 33.0% |
Hang Seng | 20,049.64 | 2.3% | 4.4% | -1.5% | 1.4% | -9.5% | -33.8% |
CSI 300 | 4,039.09 | 1.0% | 2.5% | -1.6% | 4.3% | -5.6% | 3.4% |
European stock indices | |||||||
DAX | 15,210.39 | 0.0% | 1.6% | -1.7% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 28.0% |
CAC | 7 139.25 | 0.1% | 1.6% | -2.4% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 40.1% |
FTSE | 7,499.6 | -0.9% | 1.2% | -5.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 8.3% |
FTSE MIB | 26,482.21 | -0.2% | 2.2% | -2.9% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 18.8% |
IBEX | 8,970 | -0.4% | 0.9% | -2.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | -4.5% |
Regional stock indices | |||||||
BUX | 42,906.06 | 2.2% | 5.0% | -5.5% | -2.0% | -3.8% | 16.1% |
ATX | 3 162.8 | -0.6% | 0.5% | -8.8% | 1.2% | -5.0% | -7.3% |
PX | 1,325.32 | -0.3% | 0.5% | -4.6% | 10.3% | -1.1% | 19.6% |
WIG20 | 56,983.56 | 0.0% | 0.1% | -4.2% | -0.8% | -11.5% | -4.1% |
Hungarian blue chips | |||||||
OTP | 10,400 | 3.4% | 9.5% | -4.2% | 2.9% | -15.7% | -8.0% |
Mol | 2 546 | 3.5% | 6.2% | -8.4% | -2.2% | -9.1% | -9.7% |
Richter | 7,375 | 0.3% | -0.1% | -4.8% | -11.1% | 2.3% | 42.9% |
Magyar Telekom | 388 | 0.4% | 1.6% | -1.5% | 14.5% | -3.4% | -12.8% |
Raw materials | |||||||
WTI | 69.96 | -1.2% | 2.5% | -7.0% | -12.8% | -40.1% | 6.3% |
Brent | 75.49 | -1.5% | 1.2% | -8.3% | -11.1% | -38.0% | 7.6% |
Ratio | 1,988.08 | 2.1% | 3.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 47.4% |
Silver | 23.08 | 2.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | -2.8% | -7.3% | 39.1% |
Foreign currencies | |||||||
EURHUF | 382.5250 | -1.5% | -3.9% | 0.6% | -4.5% | 2.6% | 22.3% |
USDHUF | 351.2627 | -2.4% | -6.3% | -2.1% | -6.4% | 3.7% | 38.8% |
GBPHUF | 434.8550 | -0.6% | -3.4% | 0.7% | -3.7% | -3.1% | 21.5% |
EURUSD | 1.0890 | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | -1.0% | -11.9% |
USDJPY | 132.6700 | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.6% | -0.4% | 9.6% | 26.5% |
GBPUSD | 1.2322 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | -6.7% | -12.9% |
Cryptocurrencies | |||||||
Bitcoin | 28,343 | 3.7% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 70.7% | -34.0% | 217.8% |
Government papers | |||||||
10-year US Treasury yield | 3.39 | -1.8% | -5.3% | -13.1% | -11.7% | 45.8% | 19.7% |
10-year German government bond yield | 2.19 | -5.9% | -2.3% | -9.8% | -14.4% | 404.1% | 314.6% |
10-year Hungarian government bond yield | 8.56 | -1.7% | -2.9% | -3.5% | -7.5% | 31.5% | 230.5% |
Source: Refinitiv, Portfolio |
Cover image source: Source: Getty Images