The strengthening of the forint soon ran out, and the euro is back at 397

By Thursday morning, the strengthening of the forint had run out, the euro was already quoted at 396.8, which again means a 0.3% weakening of the forint.

The forint began to weaken, it is already above 395 against the euro, and compared to yesterday it is still gaining 0.1%. One euro cost HUF 395 and 20 fils.

After the small weakening in the morning, the forint jumped from 398 to 393 in a short time, in addition to the fact that Hungarian banks returned to the interbank market after yesterday’s public holiday. As we have drawn: in the short term, it is now worth watching the 392 rising trend line:

Although in such mood-based periods (with low liquidity) the influence of technical analysis on the exchange rate may be smaller, it is still apparent that yesterday afternoon the 200-day moving average (brown line at 401) may have been the one that caught the fall of the forint (above the exchange rate spiked to 402), after which the recovery started.

The HUF quickly began to strengthen again against the euro, the exchange rate of around 394.5 is already 0.3% lower than on Wednesday evening. The dollar costs HUF 371.9 now.

On Thursday morning, the forint was around 397.6 against the euro, which meant a weakening of almost 0.5% compared to the level of Wednesday evening. Yesterday afternoon, the forint was temporarily above 400, and then in the evening, the forint strengthened a little. In addition, low liquidity due to the national holiday may have played a role in Wednesday’s drop, which caused larger than usual fluctuations in the market. After the American bank failures, investors began to worry primarily about the European financial sector, which had a negative impact on riskier assets, including the forint. In the evening, the market sentiment improved a little, which brought about a turnaround and pulled the Hungarian currency back from the level above 400. According to the signs, the tense atmosphere may persist today, the clouds over the European banking sector have not dissipated. Against the dollar, we are now at 374.8, while the British pound costs HUF 450.86.

Among the forint’s competitors, the Polish zloty weakened by 0.2% and the Czech crown stagnated against the euro. In the emerging market, the Turkish lira was little changed and the Russian ruble gained 0.2% against the dollar.

The change in mood was also reflected in the euro-dollar exchange rate: on Wednesday, due to problems related to the European banking sector, the dollar strengthened, and then in the evening a slight turnaround was seen. This morning, the quote is around 1.0606, which means a 0.3% dollar weakness compared to Wednesday evening. The Japanese yen gained 0.4 percent against the dollar, while the British pound improved 0.1 percent.

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