The forint jumps from 401 euros after the ECB’s decision

In recent hours, we have not seen any significant movements on the forint market after the volatile morning period and the intense reactions to the ECB interest rate decision, the domestic currency is currently gaining minimally against the euro, one euro now costs a little more than HUF 395.

By late afternoon, the forint was able to strengthen again against the euro, and now it has passed the level of 398 against the euro. With this, the exchange rate is practically the same as it was a day ago at this time.

For the time being, the temporary momentum of the forint has disappeared, and it started to weaken again against the euro from the support of 398.2-398.4. The next important level could be the range around 399.1.

At 4:50 p.m., the Hungarian currency was already able to gain again against the euro, exiting the band around 399.6 and returning to 398.2.

It was also able to improve compared to the dollar, it slowly pulled back from the daily low above 379 and was able to return to 375.5. Thus, the daily loss is only 0.25 percent compared to the opening. Within the week, it is still 20 units worse than on Monday.

After rapid swings, the forint did not leave the 399.6 band against the euro in the last half hour. During the rest of the day, however, the exchange rate may move in any direction due to high volatility.

The closing of the forint against the euro finally stopped at 399.6, and now it started a short sideways move at this band. Even so, the exchange rate is at a nearly two-month low.

The rapid weakening of the forint lasted until the level of 401.4 against the euro, when the exchange rate started to correct back slightly, thus the Hungarian currency was able to retreat to 399.9.

On the other hand, the euro itself began to weaken against the dollar, while it strengthened by around 0.4 percent in response to the ECB’s 50 basis point increase, which then turned into a 0.2 percent weakening:

The weakening of the forint continued in the afternoon, the euro also crossed the psychological level of 400, which is already 1.1% higher than last night.

The forint continues to weaken, the exchange rate of 398.6 represents a 0.7% increase compared to yesterday.

Parallel to the strengthening of the dollar, the forint began to weaken, and the quotation of the euro rose to 397.25, which is 0.4% higher than on Wednesday evening.

The European Central Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points, and the dollar started to strengthen, so the quotation is now around 1.057, which made up for the weakening of the American currency in the morning.

By Thursday morning, the strengthening of the forint had run out, the euro was already quoted at 396.8, which again means a 0.3% weakening of the forint.

The forint began to weaken, it is already above 395 against the euro, and compared to yesterday it is still gaining 0.1%. One euro cost HUF 395 and 20 fils.

After the small weakening in the morning, the forint jumped from 398 to 393 in a short time, in addition to the fact that Hungarian banks returned to the interbank market after yesterday’s public holiday. As we have drawn: in the short term, it is now worth watching the 392 rising trend line:

Although in such mood-based periods (with low liquidity) the influence of technical analysis on the exchange rate may be smaller, it is still apparent that yesterday afternoon the 200-day moving average (brown line at 401) may have been the one that caught the fall of the forint (above the exchange rate spiked to 402), after which the recovery started.

The HUF quickly began to strengthen again against the euro, the exchange rate of around 394.5 is already 0.3% lower than on Wednesday evening. The dollar costs HUF 371.9 now.

On Thursday morning, the forint was around 397.6 against the euro, which meant a weakening of almost 0.5% compared to the level of Wednesday evening. Yesterday afternoon, the forint was temporarily above 400, and then in the evening, the forint strengthened a little. In addition, low liquidity due to the national holiday may have played a role in Wednesday’s drop, which caused larger than usual fluctuations in the market. After the American bank failures, investors began to worry primarily about the European financial sector, which had a negative impact on riskier assets, including the forint. In the evening, the market sentiment improved a little, which brought about a turnaround and pulled the Hungarian currency back from the level above 400. According to the signs, the tense atmosphere may persist today, the clouds over the European banking sector have not dissipated. Against the dollar, we are now at 374.8, while the British pound costs HUF 450.86.

Among the forint’s competitors, the Polish zloty weakened by 0.2% and the Czech crown stagnated against the euro. In the emerging market, the Turkish lira was little changed and the Russian ruble gained 0.2% against the dollar.

The change in mood was also reflected in the euro-dollar exchange rate: on Wednesday, due to problems related to the European banking sector, the dollar strengthened, and then in the evening a slight turnaround was seen. This morning, the quote is around 1.0606, which means a 0.3% dollar weakness compared to Wednesday evening. The Japanese yen gained 0.4 percent against the dollar, while the British pound improved 0.1 percent.

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