The EU should know that the rise of autocracy in Tunisia will not be solved with plasters in the short term

The EU is clearly concerned that Tunisia is heading for political and economic collapse.

As a result of widespread disillusionment, democracy is in decline and authoritarian populists have seized power in various corners of the world.

Alas, Tunisia is no exception.

Tunisia’s transition to democracy after its 2011 Jasmine Revolution – the first in a series of democratization protests that have come to be widely known as the Arab Spring movement – lasted only as long as average citizens still believed it would. offered a better life.

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Today it is in shambles as President Kais Saied has cemented his authoritarian rule. As a result of this democratic downturn, Tunisia was not invited to the second US-co-hosted Democracy Summit on 29-30 March.

Frustrated by corruption and growing inequality, Tunisians have also turned to populism

In 2016, the year of Brexit and former US President Donald Trump coming to power, disillusionment reached a fever pitch in OECD countries.

Many people around the world have become increasingly skeptical of their governments’ ability to act effectively to protect their health and promote positive economic policies and prosperity for all.

Those excluded from globalization, in Europe or the United States, pushed out of power the elites who had not listened to them.

In Tunisia, where the dividends of democracy have been slow to materialize, citizens’ anger has grown and they have lost faith in democratic institutions as tools capable of providing concrete solutions to their problems.

These tensions have been exacerbated by massive and widespread corruption and growing inequality, creating terrible frustrations and dangerously fueling populism.

These tensions have been exacerbated by massive and widespread corruption and growing inequality, creating terrible frustrations and dangerously fueling populism.

In Brazil, a major reason for former President Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power in 2018 was the massive amount of corruption that tainted the administration of Lula’s Workers’ Party, his rival, in power from 2003 to 2016 .

From “incorruptible constitutionalist” to illiberal autocrat

Tunisian Saied was elected in 2019 on a platform in which he portrayed himself as a warrior against the country’s “corrupt and incompetent elite” and enjoyed a reputation for incorruptibility as a political outsider.

While all post-revolution governments have essentially faltered, Saied – an unknown constitutionalist – maintained his popularity until his July 25, 2021 seizure of power, when he suspended parliament, ousted the prime minister and proceeded to demolish the whole political life in the country.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its severe impact … and Russia’s war in Ukraine have left no room for concern about what the situation in Tunisia has meant for stability throughout the Middle East as a whole.

The democratic retreat which the opposition describes as a coup has not provoked a significant enough reaction from Europe and the United States.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its severe impact, inflation, tensions with China and Russia’s war in Ukraine have left no room for concern about what the situation in Tunisia – the only democracy born out of the Arab Spring – meant for stability throughout the Middle East as a whole.

Thus, US President Joe Biden’s recent proclamation that “the challenge of our time is to demonstrate that democracies can achieve results by improving the lives of their people and addressing the biggest problems facing the world at large” is not enough to reassure citizens around the world that democracy is the key to our future prosperity.

Money might be a stop-gap measure, but it’s not a long-term solution

Democracy is a living and fragile thing that needs to be nurtured and protected on an ongoing basis.

Post-revolutionary times have always witnessed economic crises and turmoil.

Eastern Europe’s transition from Soviet rule saw economies decline throughout the 1990s before they were able to generate economic growth with significant help from the European Union based on a long-term vision.

The move by the EU and Italy to unblock a $1.9 billion (€1.74 billion) IMF loan to Tunisia with no strings attached could only delay the issue for a few months.

Today, sadly, it seems easier for the EU to follow the lead of the Italian government and push for a short-term part of an IMF loan than to address the instability in Tunisia and North Africa through changes in the EU’s neighborhood policies. EU, starting with migration and mobility.

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Experiences around the world have shown that authoritarian rule rarely leads to inclusive growth, vibrant economies and the fight against corruption.

Thus, the move by the EU and Italy to unblock a $1.9 billion (€1.74 billion) IMF loan to Tunisia with no strings attached could only delay the problem for a few months, setting off yet another wave of largest of migrants to Europe.

Two major changes could lead to progress

Tunisia is about to carry out a double catharsis that will allow it to look to the future with more serenity.

The first catharsis comes with the bitter failure of the Islamist Ennahdha Party and its acolyte, the Karama (“Dignity”) Party, as their first concern when they took power was to demand high financial compensation from a country already in bankruptcy.

People saw that theocratic systems exploited religion and made empty promises to improve their well-being.

Furthermore, this coalition emerged at a time when Tunisia was one of the world’s leading suppliers of jihadists. Post-Islamism is seen as a decoy designed to make Ennahdha look like a moderate party, as opposed to a hyperactive Salafist movement.

All these populist ploys that have seduced young people eager to live their dream are no longer having the same effect they once had.

The second will come only from the failure of authoritarian populism, characterized by economic short-sightedness, visceral hatred for “corrupt” secularist elites, and hostility towards democratic institutions and so-called “Western meddling”.

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Authoritarian populism itself is guilty of anti-immigrant racism – especially against sub-Saharan Africans – conspiracies against domestic “traitors” and “suppliers of foreign forces” and hatred of the media allegedly “in the hands of occult forces”.

All these populist ploys that have seduced young people eager to live their dream are no longer having the same effect they once had.

Tunisian democracy needs to be put back on its feet, and soon

This double catharsis will make it possible to exorcise the lost decade and to approach a new phase in which a peace-loving Tunisia, with a multi-millennial history, will be able to face all its problems seriously.

The rent-seeking economy, vested interests, clientelism, economic protectionism and massive corruption in particular.

Tunisian democracy must be restored quickly, and Europe and the United States must help the country achieve it more effectively with long-term systemic solutions.

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Tunisian police repress anti-Saied demonstration

The second Democracy Forum is expected to highlight Tunisia’s democratic transition and ensure it can address the country’s most pressing challenges.

The Forum states: “We will promote a vision of our world founded on democratic values: transparent, responsive and accountable governance; rule of law; and respect for human rights”.

History will tell if this is just wishful thinking.

Ghazi Ben Ahmed is the founder of the Mediterranean Development Initiative (MDI), a Tunis-based think tank founded in 2013 to help support economic and social development in the Mediterranean region.

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