It is very difficult to know if there will be another Filomena, but everything indicates that there won’t be (whatever the cabañuelas say)
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It is very difficult to know if there will be another Filomena, but everything indicates that there will not be (whatever the cabañuelas say)
It is very difficult to know if there will be another Filomena, but everything indicates that there will not be (whatever the cabañuelas say) We have explained the details of the news, step by step, below. It is very difficult to know if there will be another Filomena, but everything points to not (whatever the cabañuelas say) Keep reading our news. Here are all the details on the subject.
It is very difficult to know if there will be another Filomena, but everything indicates that there will not (whatever the cabañuelas)
During the 8th and 9th of January of last year, a snowfall that would be classified as historical left until 15 cm of snow in Madrid capital and in other areas of the center of the peninsula. There were a number of factors for this snowfall to be so exceptional. Now the topic of conversation is the same again: Is there going to be another Filomena in January? Dozens of media outlets have been forecasting the worst omen since the young meteorologist Jorge Rey pointed out a few weeks ago that a storm similar to Filomena would occur.
But not. The truth is that right now it is almost impossible to know what will happen. And the experts point out that it is very unlikely.
The mess of the cabañuelas. Jorge Rey became well known throughout Spain a year ago as he “predicted” the Filomena storm and its consequences. But in reality, the man from Burgos years it does not use any type of technology to anticipate time, its system is completely traditional since it observes nature to interpret the signals, studying aspects such as the humidity of the stones , insects, the flight of birds or clouds among others. That is why the cabañuelas debate has now been reborn, a method used by shepherds to predict the weather when meteorology did not exist. Result? The mess that befalls us today with the media, institutions and citizens without knowing what to believe.
Pseudoscience and magic? Something like that. Ángel Rivera, former spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), explained in this article in EL PAÍS: “In the 80 this was still talked about, but I thought it was outdated and that nowadays no one would believe in it. Such a thing is unheard of.” A few days ago, at Newscast of the 1, a journalist explained that the Madrid City Council has reinforced a 35% effective to deal with the Filomena 2 predicted by cabañuelas. The journalist ended up apologizing for her “error” on Twitter, which he blamed on a “bad composition of the sentence”, but its seriousness worried meteorologists.
Given the criticism received for how I ended this direct talking about The Cabañuelas. I always respect science and my colleagues at @ElTiempo_tve. And my sincerest apologies if it bothered you that I talked about it. To them and to those who are dedicated to meteorology.
— Rosa Correa (@rosacorrea_tv) January 9, 100 What does the Aemet say? Its spokespersons already has said that it is an unscientific method of pseudo-prediction, a kind of weather horoscope. With that, it is already a little clear to us what it is to observe time parameters during 12 days of August and launch ourselves to affirm how they will be projected to the 12 months of the year. In fact, Beatriz Hervella, spokesperson for Aemet, has communicated that “it is a folkloric tradition that has no rigor or validity”, since it does not follow the scientific method or undergo validation or evaluation. Even the Aemet has a degree of success one day ahead of 35,3% at maximum temperatures.
Actually, we can’t know what will happen. From a scientific point of view, it is impossible to predict any meteorological phenomenon so long. Why? To predict the weather, meteorologists have developed what are known as numerical prediction models, which aim to solve the complex equations that determine the atmospheric state. These are the Navier-Stokes equations, which determine the atmospheric movement.
However, there is a very important catch with these equations. And there is no specific solution for them. This means that approximations have to be used for atmospheric models. These approximations imply that there will be an error that will also be greater the further we go in time. For this reason, the forecasts are more reliable after a few days and lose reliability in the long term, although en recent decades the approximations have become increasingly reliable. On the other hand, seasonal forecasts may tell us, for example, that winter may be colder and more humid than usual, but even with these, the reality may end up being very different. In other words, there is no other option but to follow the forecasts on a daily basis.
Just a year ago weather fans we were salivating with the exits of the models. How predictable was Filomena? Well, on day 2 the EPS gave a clear signal of an episode of snowfall on the Meseta, although still with considerable spatial uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/Uwbkrshm1m
– Pablo Fernández (@pablofcmet) January 2, 60945068 Most likely not. Some experts They have already launched to say that the probability of it happening again is 2% and in the case of Madrid the percentage is even lower . It can never be discarded by 80% but to be able to determine if it is going to happen we can only rely on the weather forecast. The GFS model is the only one that gives a little more forecast (up to 15 days seen) and for the 24 of January does not show any type of snowstorm. The situation in Spain It will be calm because the anticyclone will prevent storms from appearing, although instability can come from the Mediterranean.
What does it take for a new Filomena? For a meteorological event like Filomena to occur, on the one hand we would need cold air and on the other a sufficient humidity load and warm air to interact and produce these precipitations in the form of snow at very low levels. Last year Filomena’s forecast came about a week before the storm hit, so the meteorologists ask for caution and insist that it is still early.