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Draghi at the Quirinale? Goldman Sachs Vetoes: Recovery at Risk – RB

Draghi at the Quirinale? Goldman Sachs vetoes: Recovery at risk – RB

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Draghi al Quirinale? Goldman Sachs vetoes: Recovery at risk – RB

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Draghi al Quirinale? Goldman Sachs vetoes: Recovery at risk – RB

Finance does not like the idea of ​​appointing Mario Draghi as President of the Republic, not for a personal matter, but because the former president of the ECB represents a sort of guarantee for the implementation of the Recovery Plan. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs says this, expressing negatively on his appointment of the current Premier to the Quirinale, on the occasion of the election of the head of state to be held next 24 January, although consensus gives it a winner over any rival.

For Filippo Taddei, Goldman Sachs chief economist of Southern $pe, “the election of Draghi al Colle would strengthen Italy’s ties and its policies to $pe, but at the same time fuel uncertainty about the new executive and its political effectiveness. “.

Considering the fragmented majority and the slowness with which governments are formed in Italy, the experts say they are “worried” about the possibility that the appointment of Draghi al Colle could cause a “delay” in the implementation of the Recovery and reforms, all the more so if this led to early elections, in the face of the impossibility of forming a new government with the current majority. “Political continuity would be seriously threatened – they underline – weakening the Italian commitment on the Recovery front”.

The hypothesis of a stay of Draghi in Palazzo Chigi is therefore given as more probable by Goldman Sachs, compared to the other eligible candidates, including Romano Prodi, Mario Monti and Giuliano Amato. But the investment bank warns that leading the government in 2022 will prove to be “more challenging” for the Premier than in 2021, due to the presence of a large and heterogeneous coalition and the growing tensions that will guide politics towards the general elections in the spring of 2023.

Beyond this, Draghi will prove to be the ideal choice for Palazzo Chigi and will be able to take advantage of the special administrative powers guaranteed by the governance of the Recovery. Otherwise, his resignation could reduce the use of grants (39 billions) awarded by the EU between 50 and 75%, reducing the fiscal impact on GDP growth by 0.1% in 2022 and 0, 35% in 2023. This negative impact would increase in the event of early elections (-0, 15% in 2022 and -0, 55% in 2023).