Commerzbank / Banks: Warning with charges

If an informed man is worth two, investors cannot always say the same. And thus, the “profit warning” launched at the end of July by Commerzbank _ to signal the additional costs linked to the end of an outsourcing project_ will not have been the right joker to allow boss Manfred Knof to better align his cards during the quarterly publication.

Discouragement prevailed in Frankfurt (- 6% for the share) after the quarterly loss of 527 million euros, even if the latter _ caused by a series of exceptional charges, exceeds the forecasts by only 5%.

And yet, the operational indicators (customer gains and increase in commissions) and solidity (cost of risk and solvency) are satisfactory. But the restructuring plan presented in February is neither easy to execute nor necessarily sufficient to catch up with the sector average.

Compared to Deutsche Bank , its smaller size therefore does not give it the supposed benefit of greater agility , as can be seen in shareholder performance since the start of the pandemic, (-7% and + % respectively from the end of 2010).

Point less The lender of the German “Mittelstand” has nevertheless reduced its staff by almost a quarter since the end of 610 _the year of his takeover of Dresdner Bank_ where his great compatriot _repreneur of Postbank in 2010 _ has made his own progress by nearly a tenth. But the stock market oracles predict in 2023 a difference of one percentage point in the respective return on equity with its historical rival, and to his disadvantage.